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everymansmedium · **Re: What does probability say to you? -** 10-14-2007, 01:50 PM

What does probability say to you? Greybeard #2:
Hi Greg:

One question first. You state that the thread is about logic and probability, But it appears to be more about Natural Selection and Intelligent Design. Is this the case?

I'm interested either way, but would much prefer to know which it is.

The thread is about probability. In this case it might end up with a look at the probability that might give us some odds as to deciding on either natural selection or intelligent design relative to what we might find. Let us look to see what we can dig up to add weight to one or the other. Not that I think It will make any difference in any ones decision. Just to create a picture that we can stand back and look at objectively. There are a number of issues that could be added to this list. I do not intend to generate any intense debate. I just wish to add the information that we can all add to a list for each. We may at a later time take that list and start a new thread that we can debate within. This subject is meant to be VERY WIDE. It may end up starting many threads for many people. But here in this one I only want to make a list of the items effecting the probabilities. In this case it is relative to natural selection / Intelligent design.

NEXT:
The odds of random data:

” The number of possible characters in the data system with an exponent equal to the number of characters in the data packet.”
Not sure what your saying here.
Initially I used the number 255 as this is for 8 bit data

This is the mathematical odds of any specific data packet happening at random.
Simplified data. As follows
26 alpha-lo 26 alpha-hi 10 numbers 36 possible pun = 98 possible characters
This is using our current ASCII system. You might want to use a base 5 as in the genetic code.
It does not make much difference as the odds of any data packet happening at random is huge.
As: The exponent = the number of characters in the packet.

If everything That lives is composed of data, genetic data and learned or experienced data. Now if we decide that there is no divine force to intervene. Then A living thing must be some type of chemical computer. A regenerative chemical computer. Without divine intervention then it must be a spontaneous regenerative chemical computer.

Yes. I sort of agree, altho I don't know what you mean by spontaneous, to reproduce requires outside resources?

The initial start must be most basic. Simple single cell division. The most basic form of life that can continue/regenerate. We are trying to guess at the smallest possible data packet that will result in the most basic form of sustainable life. This will give us the odds of it happening at random. This might be interesting to estimate this number. I am sure that we will need some help from those that have a more intimate relationship with biochemistry than I have. I did have hopes on finding some people here that might make a best guess at this.

NEXT:
How many colonies would a colonizer colonize, If a colonizer could colonize a colony?
You've lost me here mate. LOL. Look forward to your next post, perhaps you could start with some simpler questions.
The answer to that question is simply >1, It might be infinitely >1. But this thought says if there is any race of beings colonizing planets anywhere in the universe, they alter the odds of a planet being colonized because they colonize more that one planet. And each planet that they colonize may also colonize more than one. This is a very profound concept because it indicates a trend. Any that know about probability know that a trend can play a big part in calculating the odds of any occurrence. The occurrence that we might be concerned with is:

How did we get here? I think I have all possibilities cataloged.
#1: We began here as the result of a random act.
#2: We began here as the result of divine intervention.
#3: We are a colony of some other society that we have forgotten.
#4: Our seed was brought here from elsewhere by an intelligent source.
#5: Our seed came from space as the result of a previous cause.

I also promised that I would post some thoughts about what I think relative to our beginning here on this planet Earth.

If a potential planetary engineer was approaching our solar system or any other solar system what might they do as they came into our solar system? They know they are going to need large amounts of water. The outer shell of a star system normally collects the lighter of the elements because of the smaller effects of gravity balanced against the effect of the radiation of the star to effectively push the lighter particles to a shell around the star system called the outer shell. This shell is the place of comets and asteroids of ice. This is our first stop. We place mass propulsion devices on some of the ice asteroids and direct them to an orbit closer to the star. This is to put them within our reach as we enter the livable band about the star. Once we have started enough ice moving toward the living range of the star we may now proceed to there ourselves. When we get there we find 3 planets that are in the range of a possible colony. We have no way of knowing what the levels of soluble minerals are going to be until we put the water down onto the planet. So it is a bit of a crap shoot. But we have 3 planets to try. We send the ice asteroids into 2 orbits from opposite directions on each of the 3 planets. We then send a number of seed capsules to all of the planets. These contain what is the beginning of the biological needs to start life on the planet. These capsules are set to open after about a year on the surface. They are put in places that will flood when the water comes. The year of waiting is to allow for stabilization. Then we document the process and leave to go elsewhere. When the next visit occurs it might be tens of thousands of years after the engineering process. When they return the find that the innermost planet went runaway thermal and was covered with very hot clouds, also the soluble mineral turned out to be disagreeable. Also the outer planet had insufficient mass to hold the water and it evaporated back into space except for a small amount that remained frozen at the poles. However the 3rd planet remains viable. A colony of 144000 people are left to colonize this planet. These colonists are warned that it will be 2000 years between visits. There are not worried they have a whole planet for themselves. A beautiful new world.

Obviously this is just a story. But it is based on a few facts. #1: The lighter elements of a solar system normally accumulate in the outer shell. This includes water in the form of ice. As it is based on the lightest gas and the 8th lightest gas. Question is the water that we find on earth out of place. What are the odds of it getting here without help? Also is there large amounts of water on Venus? Is there evidence that there was at one time large amounts of water on Mars? Where did all of this water come from? Or Might this be considered to be ear marks of colonization and planetary engineering.

I think eventually we might use this to start a separate thread called, “Is it possible we a colonized planet?” but before we do lets give it a chance to gather some data about both of these probabilities.
John.

	(#3 (permalink))
everymansmedium 2nd degree Black Belt Status: Offline Posts: 302 Thanks Given: 56 Thanked 48x in 37 Posts Join Date: Sep 2007 Rep Power: 7	Re: What does probability say to you? - 10-14-2007, 01:50 PM What does probability say to you? Greybeard #2: Hi Greg: One question first. You state that the thread is about logic and probability, But it appears to be more about Natural Selection and Intelligent Design. Is this the case? I'm interested either way, but would much prefer to know which it is. The thread is about probability. In this case it might end up with a look at the probability that might give us some odds as to deciding on either natural selection or intelligent design relative to what we might find. Let us look to see what we can dig up to add weight to one or the other. Not that I think It will make any difference in any ones decision. Just to create a picture that we can stand back and look at objectively. There are a number of issues that could be added to this list. I do not intend to generate any intense debate. I just wish to add the information that we can all add to a list for each. We may at a later time take that list and start a new thread that we can debate within. This subject is meant to be VERY WIDE. It may end up starting many threads for many people. But here in this one I only want to make a list of the items effecting the probabilities. In this case it is relative to natural selection / Intelligent design. NEXT: The odds of random data: ” The number of possible characters in the data system with an exponent equal to the number of characters in the data packet.” Not sure what your saying here. Initially I used the number 255 as this is for 8 bit data This is the mathematical odds of any specific data packet happening at random. Simplified data. As follows 26 alpha-lo 26 alpha-hi 10 numbers 36 possible pun = 98 possible characters This is using our current ASCII system. You might want to use a base 5 as in the genetic code. It does not make much difference as the odds of any data packet happening at random is huge. As: The exponent = the number of characters in the packet. If everything That lives is composed of data, genetic data and learned or experienced data. Now if we decide that there is no divine force to intervene. Then A living thing must be some type of chemical computer. A regenerative chemical computer. Without divine intervention then it must be a spontaneous regenerative chemical computer. Yes. I sort of agree, altho I don't know what you mean by spontaneous, to reproduce requires outside resources? The initial start must be most basic. Simple single cell division. The most basic form of life that can continue/regenerate. We are trying to guess at the smallest possible data packet that will result in the most basic form of sustainable life. This will give us the odds of it happening at random. This might be interesting to estimate this number. I am sure that we will need some help from those that have a more intimate relationship with biochemistry than I have. I did have hopes on finding some people here that might make a best guess at this. NEXT: How many colonies would a colonizer colonize, If a colonizer could colonize a colony? You've lost me here mate. LOL. Look forward to your next post, perhaps you could start with some simpler questions. The answer to that question is simply >1, It might be infinitely >1. But this thought says if there is any race of beings colonizing planets anywhere in the universe, they alter the odds of a planet being colonized because they colonize more that one planet. And each planet that they colonize may also colonize more than one. This is a very profound concept because it indicates a trend. Any that know about probability know that a trend can play a big part in calculating the odds of any occurrence. The occurrence that we might be concerned with is: How did we get here? I think I have all possibilities cataloged. #1: We began here as the result of a random act. #2: We began here as the result of divine intervention. #3: We are a colony of some other society that we have forgotten. #4: Our seed was brought here from elsewhere by an intelligent source. #5: Our seed came from space as the result of a previous cause. I also promised that I would post some thoughts about what I think relative to our beginning here on this planet Earth. If a potential planetary engineer was approaching our solar system or any other solar system what might they do as they came into our solar system? They know they are going to need large amounts of water. The outer shell of a star system normally collects the lighter of the elements because of the smaller effects of gravity balanced against the effect of the radiation of the star to effectively push the lighter particles to a shell around the star system called the outer shell. This shell is the place of comets and asteroids of ice. This is our first stop. We place mass propulsion devices on some of the ice asteroids and direct them to an orbit closer to the star. This is to put them within our reach as we enter the livable band about the star. Once we have started enough ice moving toward the living range of the star we may now proceed to there ourselves. When we get there we find 3 planets that are in the range of a possible colony. We have no way of knowing what the levels of soluble minerals are going to be until we put the water down onto the planet. So it is a bit of a crap shoot. But we have 3 planets to try. We send the ice asteroids into 2 orbits from opposite directions on each of the 3 planets. We then send a number of seed capsules to all of the planets. These contain what is the beginning of the biological needs to start life on the planet. These capsules are set to open after about a year on the surface. They are put in places that will flood when the water comes. The year of waiting is to allow for stabilization. Then we document the process and leave to go elsewhere. When the next visit occurs it might be tens of thousands of years after the engineering process. When they return the find that the innermost planet went runaway thermal and was covered with very hot clouds, also the soluble mineral turned out to be disagreeable. Also the outer planet had insufficient mass to hold the water and it evaporated back into space except for a small amount that remained frozen at the poles. However the 3rd planet remains viable. A colony of 144000 people are left to colonize this planet. These colonists are warned that it will be 2000 years between visits. There are not worried they have a whole planet for themselves. A beautiful new world. Obviously this is just a story. But it is based on a few facts. #1: The lighter elements of a solar system normally accumulate in the outer shell. This includes water in the form of ice. As it is based on the lightest gas and the 8th lightest gas. Question is the water that we find on earth out of place. What are the odds of it getting here without help? Also is there large amounts of water on Venus? Is there evidence that there was at one time large amounts of water on Mars? Where did all of this water come from? Or Might this be considered to be ear marks of colonization and planetary engineering. I think eventually we might use this to start a separate thread called, “Is it possible we a colonized planet?” but before we do lets give it a chance to gather some data about both of these probabilities. John.