Evolution
Is it reasonable to suppose that the evolution of speed in horses has reached its limits? In a restricted sense, the answer is yes. The equipment used in horse racing, and the surfaces of the tracks on which these races are contested, did not change appreciably during the years when speeds were increasing in the Triple Crown races, and they have not changed since. Nor were there any apparent breakthroughs in training or nutrition that led to the increases in speed in thoroughbreds in the first half of the twentieth century. It seems likely, then, that the initial increase in speed in horses was due primarily to selective breeding. If this is true, evidence from the Triple Crown races suggests that the process of selective breeding of thoroughbreds (as practiced in the US) is incapable of producing a substantially faster horse: despite the efforts of the breeders, speeds are not increasing, and current attempts to breed faster horses may instead be producing horses that are more fragile (Drape, 200

. The fastest speed in two of the Triple Crown races was set in 1973 by the same horse, Secretariat, and he was initially credited with a speed equal to the record in the third race (the Preakness Stakes) as well. (The timer malfunctioned in that race, however, and Secretariat's subsequently established official speed is slightly slower.) Thus, Secretariat approached the predicted absolute maximum speeds in all three of his Triple Crown races and therefore may represent a good approximation of the ultimate individual thoroughbred in races 1.25–1.5 miles long.
In a larger sense, however, the equine data presented here are preliminary at best. It may well be possible that different criteria for selective breeding of horses could produce a faster animal. Thoroughbreds have been recognized as a separate breed since the 1700s, and regulation of the breed has constrained its gene pool: thoroughbreds are less genetically diverse than other breeds of horses (Cunningham et al., 2001). The breed is effectively a closed lineage descended from as few as 12–29 individuals (Cunningham et al., 2001; Hill et al., 2002), and 95% of the paternal lineages in present-day thoroughbreds can be traced to a single stallion, The Darley Arabian. Selective breeding starting with different equine stock could perhaps yield faster horses. In this sense, then, the results presented here do not necessarily address the question of the maximum speed for the species Equus cabillus.