Monitering the Gulf Oil Spill: Worst Case Scenarios

[RascalPuff]

Worst Case Scenario: The Gulf Oil Spill May Be Permanent

• Gulf News; From Bad to Worse
  By Bob Kall
  OpEd News, June 17, 2010
  Straight to the Source
  
  

Sit down. Get ready. Your life has begun to change. It will never be the same again. This gulf disaster is changing everything. Call your legislators. Tell them that they are now on notice. There are the constituents and there are planet killing corporations, ready to wipe out life on the planet for a profit. Those legislators have to choose whose side they are on. No more bullshit. No more lobbyists getting favors. This is not life or death.

Here's the latest report I just received from my contact inside BP:

Ok, here's the deal.

Size of reservoir - estimated by BP and its partner, Andarko to be between 2.5B and 10B bbl. (that's 100,000,000,000 gallons and 400,000,000,000 gallons.

Yes - all of those numbers are BILLIONS.

BP has admitted in at least 3 interviews that the well casing is compromised (broken). So, when they tried the Top Kill - and then the Junk Shot - the stuff shot out the sides and didn't go much down the hole. A REAL top kill should just take a few hours - or it's not going to ever work.

The casing was undoubtedly broken apart by the natural gas 'explosion' at the bottom of the well, which was the result of methane coming out of solution (ie. the methane hydrates melting and expanding dramatically). Much like when your washer's water line has air in it and you shut off the valve and the line 'hammers', the well 'hammered' when the BOP shut (the guess is 80%), and the dramatic upshot in pressure, as well as the acoustic shockwave, broke the casing.

The Question of the Day is: Did the explosion rupture the casing for its entire length?

If that is so, then a relief well will be unable to plug the hole. TEN relief wells would be unable to plug the hole.

The consensus seems to be, among oil people I've spoken with, that this is exactly the case.

If that's so, then the well will run until Obama nukes it. That is the only thing that could close it.

If they can't plug it via the relief wells, and if they don't nuke it (it can't be conventional explosives, for a few reasons), then about 1/2 of the oil and gas will run out. That would be 50 BILLION to 200 BILLION gallons of oil, over a 10 year period. Although, like the interest you pay on a house note, the biggest part would be up-front.

Another report I discovered yesterday, can't remember where, is that there is so much methane coming out of the gulf gusher that it equals what New York City produces in a day. That methane is 25 to 100 times more deleterious than CO2 as a greenhouse gas aggravating global warming.

We need to start thinking about a black gulf that is dead, that oil and other toxins are leaking to other oceans. What will our world, our nation, the human race, life on this planet look like if all the seas die?

http://www.organicconsumers.org/arti...icle_21064.cfm

Google 'Gulf Oil Spill: Worst Case Scenario', with the passage of time and the pejorative developments...
Please offer your rearch and commentary....

[labelwench]

For a considerable time, the planet has been regarded as a large place, and the solution to pollution was merely dilution. For species that propagate and over-populate, it has ever been the plan to disperse, move on to greener pastures, so to speak.

All of the best real estate has long been claimed, and re-claimed, by the shedding of blood since before recorded history, as oral traditions go.
Even today, view the planet from space at night, and see where most of the lights shine from.

That everything in the ecosystem is connected seems to be a very hard lesson for the 'naked apes' to learn. Why this should be so, is hard to comprehend, as we have gained a thorough comprehension of many of the systems of nature by which water, wind and even earth, migrate.

We can't get away with 'doing it somewhere else' regardless of what 'IT' turns out to be, as any negative effect shall surely return to us, in a boomerang fashion, even if the arc be very long before we observe that such has come to pass.

So now, instead of a hole in the dike, which we would plug, we have poked a hole into the earth's crust, in a location where circumstances are such that our remedies appear to be of more harm than aid.

This is one mistake that we, and future generations are going to pay for, and it has got me to wondering just how and why all great civilizations eventually fall......

.....and it is said that the bigger they come, the harder they fall........

[RascalPuff]

For a considerable time, the planet has been regarded as a large place, and the solution to pollution was merely dilution. For species that propagate and over-populate, it has ever been the plan to disperse, move on to greener pastures, so to speak.

All of the best real estate has long been claimed, and re-claimed, by the shedding of blood since before recorded history, as oral traditions go.
Even today, view the planet from space at night, and see where most of the lights shine from.

That everything in the ecosystem is connected seems to be a very hard lesson for the 'naked apes' to learn. Why this should be so, is hard to comprehend, as we have gained a thorough comprehension of many of the systems of nature by which water, wind and even earth, migrate.

We can't get away with 'doing it somewhere else' regardless of what 'IT' turns out to be, as any negative effect shall surely return to us, in a boomerang fashion, even if the arc be very long before we observe that such has come to pass.

So now, instead of a hole in the dike, which we would plug, we have poked a hole into the earth's crust, in a location where circumstances are such that our remedies appear to be of more harm than aid.

This is one mistake that we, and future generations are going to pay for, and it has got me to wondering just how and why all great civilizations eventually fall......

.....and it is said that the bigger they come, the harder they fall........

Imho, the magnitude and gravity of this so called 'oil spill' has yet to emerge in a public language that properly reveals it for the macabre global peril that it is. I do not believe that the (ominously ongoing, 24-7) issue can be alleviated by the formerly almighty spin doctors vehicularizing the formerly almighty - monopolized - media.

Truly yours would really like to be wrong (a mistaken 'reactionary') about this, but it appears that *'they' have finally gone and tripped the terminal light fantastic on this one: while the *petroleum industry, the most wealthy and powerful industry in the world, continues to bicker about its 'right' (and/or 'obligation') to play Russian roulette with the world, and so far, they're still in charge...

The wary 'consumer' (formerly referred to as 'the customer', and 'the client') will continue to be professionally lampooned and harpooned into believing that the public expenditure of and demand for gasoline is responsible for what happened - and did not happen - in the oil drilling operation in the Gulf. The long time Green Advocates will be - and are being - tarred with the same moribund brush. Alternative sources of power have been suppressed since the potential of the Stanley Steamer was prevented from public debut - competitively nudged out of techological development, in the early 1900's. http://www.stanleymotorcarriage.com/...eneralInfo.htm


Post Script:
Kudos to TimeParticle's thread, 'Human Population Control', for inspiring the formation of this symbiotic - subject specific - thread.

"As the ocean dies, massive quantities of earthly life die with it. The ocean is dying." - Jacque Costeau, 1985

[labelwench]

Imho, the magnitude and gravity of this so called 'oil spill' has yet to emerge in a public language that properly reveals it for the macabre global peril that it is. I do not believe that the (ominously ongoing, 24-7) issue can be alleviated by the formerly almighty spin doctors vehicularizing the formerly almighty - monopolized - media.

Truly yours would really like to be wrong (a mistaken 'reactionary') about this, but it appears that *'they' have finally gone and tripped the terminal light fantastic on this one: while the *petroleum industry, the most wealthy and powerful industry in the world, continues to bicker about its 'right' (and/or 'obligation') to play Russian roulette with the world, and so far, they're still in charge...

The wary 'consumer' (formerly referred to as 'the customer', and 'the client') will continue to be professionally lampooned and harpooned into believing that the public expenditure of and demand for gasoline is responsible for what happened - and did not happen - in the oil drilling operation in the Gulf. The long time Green Advocates will be - and are being - tarred with the same moribund brush. Alternative sources of power have been suppressed since the potential of the Stanley Steamer was prevented from public debut - competitively nudged out of techological development, in the early 1900's. http://www.stanleymotorcarriage.com/...eneralInfo.htm


Post Script:
Kudos to TimeParticle's thread, 'Human Population Control', for inspiring the formation of this symbiotic - subject specific - thread.

"As the ocean dies, massive quantities of earthly life die with it. The ocean is dying." - Jacque Costeau, 1985

The politics of the present oil disaster underway, and the media coverage of the event, actually seems to be 'under-played' at the moment, yet this is exactly what one would expect from the media spin-doctors.

That such a disaster could have been 'orchestrated' seems a very bizarre concept to contemplate, as the effects of such event are difficult to 'model' beyond 'Bad, Very Bad, Uh-Oh, and Extinction of Species.....', and which species may be lost, quite unknowable at present, as we are seriously messing with the chemistry of the planet as much by our clean-up efforts as the spill itself.

If I recall, there are some bacteria that actually thrive in such conditions, so perhaps we are actually ushering in a new era for these species, as we potentially write ourselves and many other species out of the script?

http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=21652

That we are a species of great potential, with a proclivity to leap before we look, would be an understatement......

The irony of "It is our goal to have all shrimp sold by our company to be sourced in an environmentally responsible manner by 2013", is not lost on me, as I walk past the banner by our seafood section.

Admirable goals of many, endangered by the actions of a few with different agendas.

[RascalPuff]

For a considerable time, the planet has been regarded as a large place, and the solution to pollution was merely dilution. For species that propagate and over-populate, it has ever been the plan to disperse, move on to greener pastures, so to speak.

All of the best real estate has long been claimed, and re-claimed, by the shedding of blood since before recorded history, as oral traditions go.
Even today, view the planet from space at night, and see where most of the lights shine from.

That everything in the ecosystem is connected seems to be a very hard lesson for the 'naked apes' to learn. Why this should be so, is hard to comprehend, as we have gained a thorough comprehension of many of the systems of nature by which water, wind and even earth, migrate.

We can't get away with 'doing it somewhere else' regardless of what 'IT' turns out to be, as any negative effect shall surely return to us, in a boomerang fashion, even if the arc be very long before we observe that such has come to pass.

So now, instead of a hole in the dike, which we would plug, we have poked a hole into the earth's crust, in a location where circumstances are such that our remedies appear to be of more harm than aid.

This is one mistake that we, and future generations are going to pay for, and it has got me to wondering just how and why all great civilizations eventually fall......

.....and it is said that the bigger they come, the harder they fall........

The politics of the present oil disaster underway, and the media coverage of the event, actually seems to be 'under-played' at the moment, yet this is exactly what one would expect from the media spin-doctors.

That such a disaster could have been 'orchestrated' seems a very bizarre concept to contemplate, as the effects of such event are difficult to 'model' beyond 'Bad, Very Bad, Uh-Oh, and Extinction of Species.....', and which species may be lost, quite unknowable at present, as we are seriously messing with the chemistry of the planet as much by our clean-up efforts as the spill itself.

If I recall, there are some bacteria that actually thrive in such conditions, so perhaps we are actually ushering in a new era for these species, as we potentially write ourselves and many other species out of the script?

http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=21652

That we are a species of great potential, with a proclivity to leap before we look, would be an understatement......

The irony of "It is our goal to have all shrimp sold by our company to be sourced in an environmentally responsible manner by 2013", is not lost on me, as I walk past the banner by our seafood section.

Admirable goals of many, endangered by the actions of a few with different agendas.

If the information provided by TimeParticle in his thread 'Human Population Control' is correct, the disembodied voice message - of the url http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbwenqQ3928&NR=1 ('submitted by an anonymous on-line individual') - connotes a public education program: to approximate the true meaning of of the 'oil spill' in the Gulf of Mexico - that it is a major industrial-military, multi-motivated, plurally agendized corporate state coup. Viz., the ominous message may - like The (U.S. Constitution sacking) Patriot & Homeland Security Acts - be continuous with a functional war (without a formal declaration of war) against the (imposed, 'indoctrination class' attending) American people.

[RascalPuff]

Among other things, we may be getting a lesson in how some importantly imposing and relevant subjects are generally ignored as much and as long as possible and underestimated when they're subjected at all. I believe we're going to be seeing a reluctant trend of acknowledgement, accompanied by deliberate understatements catching up with themselves belatedly; which is a study (of the major media) in itself.

Gulf Oil Spill

Get the Latest News on the Gulf Oil
Disaster. See Photos & Videos.
www.NRDC.org

[labelwench]

This link to an interactive map allows one to model the oil spill to any location, in order to give one a sense of the size of the disaster, using terrain and a scale that each of us is familiar with, our home and immediate surrounds.

This is how much of the Yukon Territory would be covered, at present.

http://www.ifitwasmyhome.com/

(The link works well on Internet Explorer, and not at all in Opera. Possibly other browsers may not be fully functional.)

[Mikal]

Gulf Oil Gusher: Danger of Tsunamis From Methane?
London, UK - 21st June 2010, 11:55 GMT

A new and less well known asymmetric threat has surfaced in the Gulf of Mexico oil gusher. Methane or CH4 gas is being released in vast quantities in the Gulf waters. Seismic data shows huge pools of methane gas at the location immediately below and around the damaged "Macondo" oil well. Methane is a colorless, odorless and highly flammable substance which forms a major component in natural gas. This is the same gas that blew the top off Deepwater Horizon and killed 11 people. The "flow team" of the US Geological Survey estimates that 2,900 cubic feet of natural gas, which primarily contains methane, is being released into the Gulf waters with every barrel of oil. The constant flow of over 50,000 barrels of crude oil places the total daily amount of natural gas at over 145 million cubic feet. So far, over 8 billion cubic feet may have been released, making it one of the most vigorous methane eruptions in modern human history. If the estimates of 100,000 barrels a day -- that have emerged from a BP internal document -- are true, then the estimates for methane gas release might have to be doubled.

Warnings
Older documents indicate that the subterranean geological formation below the "Macondo" well in the Gulf of Mexico may contain the presence of a huge methane deposit. It has been a well known fact that the methane in that oil deposit was problematic. As a result, there was a much higher risk of a blow out. Macondo shares its name with the cursed town in the novel "One Hundred Years of Solitude" by the Nobel-prize winning writer Gabriel Garcia Marquez.
By some geologists' estimates, the methane could be a massive bubble trapped for thousands of years under the Gulf of Mexico sea floor. More than a year ago, geologists expressed alarm in regard to BP and Transocean putting their exploratory rig directly over this massive underground reservoir of methane. Warnings were raised before the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe that the area of seabed chosen might be unstable and inherently dangerous.

Methane and Poison Gas Bubble
The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has found high concentrations of gases in the Gulf of Mexico area. The escapes of other poisonous gases associated with an underground methane bubble -- such as hydrogen sulfide, benzene and methylene chloride -- have also been found. Recently, the EPA measured hydrogen sulfide at more than 1,000 parts per billion (ppb) -- well above the normal 5 to 10 ppb. Some benzene levels were measured near the Gulf of Mexico in the range of 3,000 to 4,000 ppb -- up from the normal 0 to 4 ppb. Benzene gas is water soluble and is a carcinogen at levels of 1,000 ppb according to the EPA. Upon using a GPS and depth finder system, experts have discovered a large gas bubble, 15 to 20 miles wide and tens of feet high, under the ocean floor. These bubbles are common. Some even believe that the rapid release of similar bubbles may have caused the sinking of ships and planes in the Bermuda Triangle.

50,000 to 100,000 PSI
The intractable problem is that this methane, located deep in the bowels of the earth, is under tremendous pressure. Experts agree that the pressure that blows the oil into the Gulf waters is estimated to be between 30,000 and 70,000 pounds per square inch (psi). Some speculate that the pressure of the methane at the base of the well head, deep under the ocean floor, may be as high as 100,000 psi -- far too much for current technology to contain. The shutoff valves and safety measures were only built for thousands of psi at best. There is no known device to cap a well with such an ultra high pressure.

Oxygen Depletion
The crude oil from the "Macondo" well, which is damaging the Gulf of Mexico, contains around 40 percent methane, compared with about 5 percent found in typical oil deposits. Scientists warn that gases such as methane, hydrogen sulfide and benzene, along with oil, are now depleting the oxygen in the water and are beginning to suffocate marine life creating vast "dead zones". As small microbes living in the sea feed on oil and natural gas, they consume large amounts of oxygen which they require in order to digest food, ie, convert it into energy. There is an environmental ripple effect: when oxygen levels decrease, the breakdown of oil can't advance any further.

Fissures or Cracks
According to geologists, the first signs that the methane may burst its way through the bottom of the ocean would be manifest via fissures or cracks appearing on the ocean floor near the path of least resistance, ie, the damaged well head. Evidence of fissures opening up on the seabed have been captured by the robotic midget submarines working to repair and contain the ruptured well. Smaller, independent plumes have also appeared outside the nearby radius of the bore hole. When reviewing video tapes of the live BP feeds, one can see in the tapes of mid-June that there is oil spewing up from visible fissions. Geologists are pointing to new fissures and cracks that are appearing on the ocean floor.

Conclusion
The danger of loss of buoyancy and cascading tsunamis in the Gulf of Mexico -- caused by the release of the massive methane and poisonous gas bubble -- has been a much lower probability in the early period of the crisis, which began on April 20th. However, as time goes by and the risk increases, this low probability high impact scenario ought not to be ignored, given that the safety and security of the personnel involved remains paramount. Could this be how nature eventually seals the hole created by the Gulf of Mexico oil gusher?

[RascalPuff]

The word 'spill', as it is used in the title of this thread, is a misnomer.
It's not a 'spill' we're dealing with here, it's a man made geophysical disaster.

"Man has lost the capacity to foresee and to forestall.
He will end by destroying the earth."
- Albert Schweitzer

END OF THE WORLD SCENARIOS:
http://www.armageddononline.org/

[RascalPuff]

Florida Outlines BP Gulf Oil Spill Response For June 30, 2010

Source: Governor of Florida
Posted on: 30th June 2010


On Day 72 of the Gulf oil spill Hurricane Alex is approximately 566 miles southwest of the Deepwater Horizon well head site.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph. A west-northwest track is expected today. Alex is forecast to make landfall over eastern Mexico late tonight.
Tar balls, tar patties and sheen have been reported in Northwest Florida, with the heaviest impacts reported in Escambia County. View the latest reconnaissance reports here.
Impacts in the already affected areas in Northwest Florida will continue within the next 72 hours.
Gulf waters and beaches east of the Pensacola Beach Fishing Pier remain open and are under no restrictions. However, a health advisory has been issued for Gulf beach waters west of the Pensacola Beach Fishing Pier. The advisory warns against coming in contact with any oil either in the water or on the beach or with wildlife that has been impacted by the oil.
The shoreline and water along Santa Rosa Sound on the north side of the island remains clear and open for swimming, as well.
On June 29, approximately 15,310 barrels of oil were collected, 8,085 barrels of oil were flared and 54.1million cubic feet of natural gas were flared. BP is continuing efforts to drill two relief wells.
Approximately 413 miles of Gulf Coast shoreline is currently oiled—approximately 59 miles in Florida, 259 miles in Louisiana, 48 miles in Mississippi and 47 miles in Alabama.
About 1.6 million gallons of total dispersant have been applied: 1.03 million on the surface and 552,000 subsea.
Under the leadership of Governor Charlie Crist, the State Emergency Response Team and the Florida Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) are actively coordinating and responding to the Deepwater Horizon incident.
The following is a summary of state and BP response actions to date, as well as tips for residents and visitors to take precautions both pre and post-landfall.
Map of BP Oil Spill as of June 30, 2010. Click on images for larger picture.

This forecast is based on the NWS spot forecast from Tuesday, June 29 PM. Currents were obtained from several models (NOAA Gulf of Mexico, West Florida Shelf/USF, TGLO/TAMU, NAVO/NRL) and HFR measurements. The model was initialized from Monday-Tuesday satellite imagery analysis (NOAA/NESDIS) and Tuesday overflight observations. The leading edge may contain tarballs that are not readily observable from the imagery (hence not included in the model initialization). Oil near bay inlets could be brought into that bay by local tidal currents.
Winds are forecast to have an onshore (SE/S/SW) component through Friday at speeds of 12-22 kts. These strong onshore winds will continue to move the northern edge of the slick northwest threatening the barrier islands of Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle west of Freeport, FL. The Chandeleur Islands, Breton Sound and the Mississippi Delta also continue to be threatened by shoreline contacts. To the west of the Delta, these winds may bring oil ashore between Barataria Bay and Caillou Bay – any remaining floating oil may be moved quickly to the west as a strong westward coastal current develops over the next few days.

Landfall Reports and Predictions:
Impacts in the already affected areas in Northwest Florida will continue within the next 72 hours.
If oil is sighted on Florida’s coastline report it to the State Warning Point at 1-877-2-SAVE-FL (1-877-272-8335) or by dialing #DEP from most cell phones.
******************************************

June 28, 2010 5:32 PM
Gulf Dead Zone Grows as No-Fishing Area Expands





Posted by Charles Cooper 6 comments

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As oil from the Deepwater Horizon explosion spreads across the Gulf of Mexico, the government has expanded the no-fishing area near Florida's panhandle.
Fishery Closure Boundary as of June 28, 2010
(Credit: NOA)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it had decided to expand the fishing closure from its current northern boundary as a precautionary measure to make sure consumers don't eat seafood contaminated by the gulf oil spill. All told, a little more than 80,000 square miles, or 33 percent of Gulf of Mexico's federal waters, are now considered a closed area.
Because this remains an evolving situation, NOAA said that it will retest the area and reopen fisheries when they are deemed safe.
Meanwhile, commercial fishermen in the Gulf, who harvested more than one billion pounds of fish and shellfish in 2008, face another threat to their livelihood: a growing "dead zone" with little or no oxygen in the water.
Growing Dead Zone
Scientists tracking this phenomenon for the last few years say the affected area measures between 6,500 and 7,800 square miles - a stretch approximately the size of New Jersey. The dead zone has averaged 6,000 mile the previous five years.
2010 Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Forecast
Until the Deepwater Horizon explosion, the chief culprit for the Gulf dead zone was thought to consist of farmland runoff containing fertilizers and livestock waste. Each spring, waste products carrying nitrogen and phosphorus flow down the Mississippi River and into the Gulf, feeding what's been explosive growth in algae. After the algae die and decompose bottom-dwelling bacteria consume oxygen that otherwise would be available for bottom and near-bottom waters. Thus, the creation of the dead zone.
Dead zone in the Gulf
(Credit: Donald Scavia)
The presence of millions of gallons of oil has the potential to exacerbate the problem. As the oil breaks down, the chemical process consumes oxygen and also reduces the diffusion of oxygen from the air into the water. At the same time, the oil might also restrict the growth of hypoxia-fueling algae, helping to limit the size of the Gulf dead zone.
The five largest Gulf dead zones on record have occurred since 2001. The biggest occurred in 2002 and measured 8,484 square miles.
"The growth of these dead zones is an ecological time bomb. Without determined local, regional and national efforts to control them, we are putting major fisheries at risk," said University of Michigan aquatic ecologist Donald Scavia.
He added that the presence of toxic oil this year has created a "one-two punch that could seriously diminish valuable Gulf commercial and recreational fisheries."
"While there is speculation out there as to how the oil spill might impact the dead zone, we are simply not sure at this point," he said in an email interview with CBSNews.com. "As bacteria decompose the oil, it will use up oxygen and that may make things worse. Also, oil in the water may impede the transfer of oxygen from upper layers to the lower layers and that could make it worse." Ironically, the presence of oily water may prove a short-term boon in terms of slowing the growth of algae. Scavia said the oil could be toxic to algae, reducing its production, and minimizing the amount of organic matter that gets decomposed in the bottom water.
"That would make things better," he said, adding that the oil may shade the algae and also reduce production, making the dead zone better this year.
"In either case, the combo of oil and the dead zone is not good for the coastal communities," he said.

************************


Raw Video: Tropical Storm Alex …
AP Video1:00

Enormous system, approaching from the south in an a northerly direction through 'spill' zone to proceed toward continental mainland... Click on 'Raw Video: Tropical Storm Alex...'