Quote:
|
Originally Posted by AntonioLao From reading thru at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markov_chain it is understood that the probability of a future event only depended on the present event and not any event of the past, this implies that the connectivity of events is exactly singular and there can only be one and only one connection between two events at a particular point in time. |
Yes, it is correct to say that the probability of a future event is only contingent on the present state of the universe. There are two probabilities for such an event:
1) The probability of the event with the given universe configuration (the current position we are in on the markov chain)
2) The probability of the event at the specific time t given specific initial conditions. This probability is distinct from 1 in that we are "eliminating the knowledge" of the present. That is to say- we are assuming the present still is one among many potential states which the universe could be in. Then we can ask what the probability of that state is absent of all knowledge except initial conditions. This is the probability of the state vector.
Note it seems possible, although I am not proving here, that the probability of 1) may be "low probablility" yet lead to a higher probability for 2). That is to say- these are not necessarily directly correlated. Moving from the current configuration to a less probable one with respect to the present position on the Markov chain may lead to a higher probability for 2. Simple example: a low probability quantum decoherence event tied to an atomic bomb that destroys all living things for 100 kilometers. This is a low probability event in 1, but leads to a higher probability for the state vector for 2 if it does go off.
As for your statement about connectivity- it is a very good question- what is the nature of connectivity for our universe? IE- it is obvious that spacetime is a "completely connected" mathematical solution. However, it is also deterministic, thus does not immediately come into play with the nature of nondeterministic evolution of the universe.
So then we have to ask: what is the connectivity of the universe? IE- how and why do chemical bonds form? they are quantum phenomena, where the interaction of electron shells of distinct atoms interact